Nothing in your write up talks about the products and services that these two companies sell and whether they are supported by secular tailwinds.

I start my analysis with a focus on the product, services, market fit and need, tailwinds, headwinds...then growth forecasts, earnings reports, trends and comparison with peers.

Notice that valuation has not even been looked at thus far. That is the last piece of my analysis process.

If a stock meets my criteria in all the preceding analysis, then I can look at valuations to check if it is "expensive" or "cheap".

Value is in the eye of the beholder and I prefer to look at the business fundamentals first to decide whether I would buy or wait or move onto something else.

e.g. right now SOFI looks "cheap", however I would not buy it because it fails most of my fundamental analysis.


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Thanks for sharing. The underlying business is certainly important but there is such a thing as too high of a price once a business is at scale like Nvidia is today. Sub $10B market cap it’s almost impossible to pay too much for a business that ends up being like Nvidia, Amazon, etc.

Problem is that those businesses and scale are rare so a lot of people get hurt by buying hyped up businesses thinking they’ll be the next Amazon, Nvidia, etc

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I would disagree that NVDA is already "at scale". If you study all their business segments you will see that they launched a new chip product cycle in Q4 2022, which is due to add to revenues in Q2 2023....AND...they have two emerging product lines that are full stack (chips, networking and software) that are subscription based.

Perhaps the former is priced into the stock...but the latter is definitely not.

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Thanks for the great analysis. I rely on analysts for my fundamentals. But I’m a swing trader, so I balance fundamentals with technical analysis. I rely on EMAs, and RSIs. I also rely on daily, 5 minute, and 1 minute charts.

Plus of course, stops. I factor in 5-15 % for slippage. It’s very simple actually. I’ve stopped relying 100 % on fundamentals because they easily get outdated. I also discount analyst predictions because I’ve caught them napping a few times....the crossovers have helped tremendously in selling NVDA on January 2022 and buying it on September 2022.

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Just wondering if we will be getting any postings soon? I haven't seen one in a while, not sure if there's something up with my inbox maybe, just checking! :)

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The point Is to get Always a long thesis and develop at the same time a short thesis on something to see how strong Is One or other.it Is funny that you missed(as me) Nvidia for fondamental reasons and then you do the same creating a comparison with google.the point Is that there Is Always something cheaper or expensive but we dont see before how thearket will judge It..

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I bought NVDA shares in advance of their 4:1 stock split a couple years ago. It’s now about 35% of my portfolio, which admittedly is probably too much, but I’m willing to make adjustments in this particular case. The shares are in a taxable account and twice I’ve tried to juice my returns by selling covered calls on part of my holdings, only to have the price accelerate to so near my strike price that I ended up buying the options back for a small loss—simply because I didn’t want to exit part of my position and deal with the tax bite! Today that looks like a good decision, but I’m not sure it will feel that way a couple months from now! Lord I wish had bought those shares in my IRA, or better, in a Roth account. Too late for me on that score (retiree) but I’m trying to pass the lesson on to my kids..

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