Yellow Flags from MU and Apple

First, nothing has changed in the portfolio since this last update.

I still have the SQQQ position open and it’s in the green for us. The fact that the NASDAQ is down after a huge MU quarter is very telling and confirms my feeling of caution around tech and the market right now.

https://open.substack.com/pub/austin/p/portfolio-update-237?r=8q6q&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Here’s something I shared on X this morning that I want to be sure you see. The MU quarter was a blow out in every way BUT I don’t think it’s as bullish for the future of these stock prices as everyone initially thought, especially considering how high expectations are and how high the stocks have gone.

All that to say, I’m still in the same mindset I was last week and sticking to what I laid out.

Here’s the x post:

Apple having to raise prices is probably what’s bringing the NASDAQ down today.

$MU quarter and long term deals are great but it’s unsustainable for:

- Memory prices to stay astronomical

- Customers continuing to pay higher prices and accept cutting into their margins

So it will force customers to raise prices (like Apple) and/or look for cheaper alternatives.

Prices can only be raised so much.

So essentially higher prices = the solution to higher prices because eventually they’ll have to come down.

What does this mean?

I think we’re past the explosive growth opportunity in $MU and $SNDK

Was I wrong on my call of MU going to $900 after earnings?

Yes, but

My logic has not changed. I think we’re closer to the end of the opportunity in these stocks vs the beginning and a lot of people who buy at ATHs will get hurt.

I was just wrong on short term timing (though it did get to around $980 before earnings.

Im not short and I won’t short Micron (I still have an $SQQQ position open). But I don’t want to own here.

Much more interested in $AMZN $MELI $NU and others