Amazon, I love you, but I like BILL, MDB, NET, MELI, TTD, and CRWD more
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Yup I’m selling Amazon. I know, I know I seem like a day trader.
The truth is, I strongly believe this sell off has presented an incredible opportunity to buy into companies like BILL, MDB, NET, MELI, TTD, and CRWD and because of their extreme multiple compression and future growth potential, those have better long-term upside potential than Amazon.
Absolutely nothing wrong with Amazon’s business in my opinion. In fact, it will probably be much less volatile than the companies I’m adding to. That makes it a better investment for many people.
But I‘m comfortable with that volatility.
Here’s a look at the FastGraphs for the companies I’m adding. I’ll use what I consider low growth estimates for each (below current analyst consensus)
Bill.com with 30% annual revenue growth from 2023 - 2027.
Current Blended P/S of 19.4
At a P/S of 10 on 6/30/23 we would have a -22% total return.
At a P/S of 10 on 6/30/27 we would have a 128% total return.
I’ll set the other graphs up the same way without the text explanations (on my iPad so this is hard lol)
Cloud flare (NET)
The Trade Desk (TTD)
I have no idea what’s going to happen in the next 6 months or 1 year, but if we truly have a 3+ year time horizon, I feel good about buying at these multiples and potentially adding more if things get worse… or better.
Keep your head up, this will pass!