Sending this in the name of transparency.
I’m no medical professional, but I don’t think this virus is the end of the world. However it is clearly impacting a lot of people and causing a lot of short term fear.
If I had to guess what happens in terms of markets, I would guess….
There’s a lot of panic in the short term and a market wide sell off. There will be businesses that have almost no international revenue and nothing to do with travel that sell off (buying opportunity).
Casino, airline, and other travel companies will sell off too.
Some speculative healthcare/bio stocks will see ridiculous gains driven mostly by fear.
On Friday at the end of the day I took about 2.5% of my portfolio and shorted some travel businesses. Mostly lower quality businesses.
I took that cash collected from shorting those companies and bought some speculative companies that I believe could see some short term gains.
I’m leaving most of my core positions alone. I might sell Anaplan today (undecided) to raise cash for a possible buying opportunity in my highest confidence positions.
I could see myself possibly going to about 10% in cash for buying opportunities.
I’m not recommending anyone copy what I’ve done and in fact this is the exact type of thing that usually leads to poorer performance.
I truly hope this thing ends up getting contained as quickly as possible and the least amount of people are impacted
here are the trades I made and my current portfolio.